Feed on
Posts
Comments

Romney Loss in New Hampshire is No Big Deal

January 9th, 2008 by eric

By now it appears that John McCain is going to win in New Hampshire.  When I say it’s no big deal to Romney, I’m not just putting a positive spin on things.  Sure, the Mitt Romney team spent a great percentage of their funds and their time to realize their strategy of winning Iowa and New Hampshire.  To come in second place in both places is clearly disappointing.  However, since Mike Huckabee won in Iowa, Mitt Romney won in Wyoming, and John McCain won in New Hampshire, NOTHING is clear right now.  A worst case scenario would have been for Rudy Guiliani to win both Iowa and New Hampshire, or for Mike Huckabee to win Iowa and with momentum building to win in New Hampshire and also South Carolina (strong evangelical support for Huckabee in S.C.) on the 19th of this month.  Romney will not feel threatened by these McCain or Huckabee showings since it seems unlikely they are going to capture the more conservative Republican states (Florida for example).

As it stands right now, there could be chaos brewing in the Republican party, particularly if Fred Thompson wins South Carolina, and Rudy Giuliani wins Florida.  It’s likely to be a four man race up to Super Tuesday (5th of February).  Mark my words when I say that the GOP will look back on this chaos and seek to change the way that the nominee is selected.  Iowa and New Hampshire may never have the influence again that they once had in choosing the Republican nominee.  Republicans in these two states are left leaning Republicans.  And more independents than ever are influencing the race.  In New Hampshire, only 50 percent of Republicans described themselves as conservative.  Unless there is a re-defining of conservatism - what Rush Limbaugh calls the “new conservatism”, there will be a shake up.  Iowa really threw a wrench into the gears when they picked Huckabee from the bottom of the heap.

Here are my predictions for the remainder of the primaries leading up to Super Tuesday.

  • Jan. 15th Mitt Romney wins Michigan. (giving him two wins and some momentum.)
  • Jan. 19th Mitt Romney wins Nevada.
  • Jan. 19th Fred Thompson wins South Carolina.  (Since 1980 every winner of the Republican primary in S.C. has won the nomination. Not this year.)
  • Jan. 29th Rudy Giuliani wins Florida.  (it’s clear chaos at this point.)
  • Feb. 1st.  Mitt Romney wins Maine.
  • Feb. 5th  The race is coming down to this date.  Mitt Romney must have won one or two prior primaries at this point for Republican voters to continue to support him as a serious contender able to go the distance.  Mitt Romney will no doubt take Idaho and Utah.  There are too many other states here for me to call (24 states on Super Tuesday) Romney could very possibly win in California.

One Response to “Romney Loss in New Hampshire is No Big Deal”

  1. on 12 Jan 2008 at 4:24 pm   NM_Mitt_Commit

    All Romney supporters, let’s make a push for donations on Wednesday, January 16, 2008, the day after the Michigan primaries. The media and the other Republican candidates are trying to push MITT out because they know he is strong.

    I will be a first time donor. If you haven’t donated, donate on that day. If you already donated, do it again on that day, even if it’s just $10.

    Now the hard part, commit to finding five more people who will donate on that day. We have to get up off our duffs and do something or a good man may go down, and we will wonder why. Also, try to get your five donors to commit to finding five more donors.

    I may only get a little tree here in New Mexico, but if everybody else gets a small tree, we may just create a forest.

    COMMIT TO MITT.

    DONATE ON JANUARY 16, 2008.

Trackback URI | Comments RSS

Leave a Reply