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The Ames Iowa Straw Poll is well underway. Mitt Romney and many other of the Republican candidates have already presented their speeches. From early reports that have been put out, the crowds don’t seem to be as large as expected. Perhaps it’s the heat in Iowa that has kept people at home. People are voting. We won’t have the results until sometime after 7pm.

The Evans-Novak Political Report for 8/8 provides a great analysis of the importance of todays vote is for Mitt Romney.

The Ames, Iowa, straw poll Saturday, August 11, revolves around former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, as former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R) and Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) will not take part.

1. Romney is the hands-down favorite. His early popularity there was enough to scare away the other top contenders. Romney is the favorite in the straw poll for many reasons. First, he is generally strong in Iowa. He leads in most statewide polls, recently exceeding 25 percent and leading runner-up Giuliani by double-digits.

2. Second, the straw poll, to an even greater extent than the caucuses, is a test of organizational strength. Romney, by far, has the best organized Iowa campaign — a symptom of his being the most organized of the candidates. A former consultant and corporate manager, Romney understands management.

3. Third, more than management, the “organizational strength” required by the straw poll means mostly money. Romney is the GOP leader in that field, with $44 million raised at the end of the second quarter. With Giuliani and McCain not playing in Ames, Romney is orders of magnitude richer than his nearest competitors.

4. The potential dark horses to watch in Ames are Sen. Sam Brownback (R-Kan.), former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (R) and Rep. Ron Paul (R.-Tex.).While the straw poll holds “make-or-break” promise for Huckabee and Brownback, it’s not clear what result would “make” either of them and what result could “break” them.

5. Paul has garnered excellent spontaneous grassroots support at every turn, but this hasn’t turned into more than a blip in polls or in media coverage. His fundraising, however, is surprising, and his breadth of support on the Internet is impressive. If he shows well in Ames, he could start garnering real media attention. However, campaign organization is not Paul’s strong point, making the straw poll a less-than-ideal venue for him to break out.

6. Brownback’s campaign has dedicated itself mostly to chipping away at Romney’s support among pro-life Christian conservatives (see discussion of the debate below). This is Brownback’s base, and Romney currently occupies some of it (though he is inhibited by anti-Mormon bias). Simply within that base, Brownback could have a strong showing.

7. Huckabee, however, has similar plans. He is trying to portray himself as the candidate of evangelical Christians — the most celebrated bloc of the GOP base. Fiscal conservative discontent with Huckabee’s Arkansas tax hikes has created something of an anti-Huckabee push — an extraordinary burden for a second-tier candidate to bear.

8. A third-place finish for Brownback could be the end of the road for him, especially if it is paired with a robust Romney showing that demonstrates his support within the pro-life constituency. All of Brownback’s eggs are in the Iowa basket — his neighboring state.

9. If Brownback comes in a strong second, blowing away Huckabee and pocketing a respectable portion of the vote, he could give his candidacy a boost. The same is true for Huckabee.

10. Romney, as long as he wins as expected, cannot really suffer. A blowout win, however, would make him the undisputed front-runner in the nomination battle. A loss would be a very bad break.

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